Inside Green Innovation: Progress Report - Fourth Edition highlights:
- Significant reduction in internal combustion engine vehicle-related patent application filings since 2005.
- Recent plateau in electric vehicle and electric vehicle infrastructure-related patent application filings worldwide.
- The innovation in this industry appears to be in next-generation aspects of electric vehicles like electric roads and wireless charging.
- Tension between competing EV and hydrogen technologies.
- Surge in autonomous vehicle-related patent application filings.
The transportation industry (including land, sea, and air) accounted for an estimated 16 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions in 2023 [1]. In the UK, the transport sector produced 26 percent of the UK’s total greenhouse gas emissions in 2021 [2] – thought to be the largest of any sector – with most emissions originating from domestic transport such as road vehicles (91 percent) [2]. Therefore, transport is a hugely important sector for climate change and is on the agenda on 20 November 2024 at the UN Climate Change Conference in Baku (COP 29) [3]. Consequently, developments in the automotive industry provide an opportunity to significantly decrease greenhouse gas emissions. The automotive market has traditionally been dominated by internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles though, in recent years, the market has moved towards electric vehicles (EVs) as a greener alternative. This includes all electric vehicles (AEVs) and plug-in hybrid vehicles (PHEVs). Despite scepticism about how green EVs are in comparison to ICE vehicles, it is currently estimated that medium-sized EVs sold in 2023 will emit about half of the lifecycle emissions of those of an equivalent ICE vehicle [4]. Legislation has also driven the move to EVs, with many governments having some form of legislation governing sales of EVs [5].
Global patent filing trend
As shown in Figure 1 below, the automotive market has seen a steady growth in patent application filings worldwide since 2000, though this was interrupted by the financial crash in 2008 and the covid pandemic in 2020. The growth in patent application filings is consistent with the trend of global car sales during this period [6]. The top filers of patent applications during this period included Robert Bosch GmbH, Renault SA, Audi AG, BMW AG, and Volkswagen Group. The top filers of patent applications during the period 2017 to 2022 included PSA Automobiles SA, Renault SA, and BMW AG.
Figure 1: Global priority filings (2000-2022) - automotive sector
(Priority filing = the first time a patent application for a unique invention has been filed (the first filing))
Unsurprisingly, given government policy changes and developments in EV technology, global ICE vehicle patent application filings have seen a steady decline since 2005 (as shown in Figure 2 below).
Figure 2: Global priority filings (2000-2022) - internal combustion engines (ICE)
Conversely, sales in EVs have massively increased in recent years [7]. In particular, EV sales in China, Europe and the United States have increased significantly since 2012. With the reduction in ICE vehicle patent application filings, we might expect a corresponding surge in EV patent application filings. However, our research does not suggest this. As shown in Figure 3. below, there was a surge in global patent application filings related to EVs in the 2000s and peaking in 2011. However, since this peak, global EV patent application filings have plateaued.
Figure 3: Global priority filings (2000-2022) - electric vehicles (EV)
There are several factors that could be influencing this plateau in patent application filings. China is the largest market for EVs with sales reaching record highs in 2024 [9]. This is reflected in filings over recent years, which show a steady increase. However, this is offset by trends of some of the key jurisdictions in the EV market. Japan, which for years has been at the forefront of automotive innovation, saw a steady decrease in patent application filings since a high in 2010. A factor for this may be that Toyota, consistently the top filer of patent applications in the automotive industry over the past 25 years, appears to be filing significantly fewer EV patent applications than 10 years ago. Indeed, Akio Toyoda, the man who led Toyota as its CEO for 13 years, and now holds the chairman spot, believes that EVs are not the final answer, and that the electric car segment will only ever account for a maximum of 30 percent of the market due to the difficulties in obtaining raw materials for EV batteries [8]. The fewer filings currently may also be a result of the relative maturity of EV technology that came via the large amount of innovation in the early 2010s. In contrast with many other technologies discussed in this report, the US has never been a high filer (given the US market share) of EV patent applications. This could suggest the uncertainty of US car manufacturers about the commercial appetite of US consumers for EVs. In fact, India had a higher number of filings in this area in 2022.
Figure 4: Priority filings - India, Japan, China and US (2000-2022) - electric vehicles (EV)
Another factor that may be influencing the desire to file patent applications in this area is Tesla’s patent pledge. Tesla is a leader in the EV industry with a significant market share in the United States and China. Tesla’s worldwide sales of light EVs has increased significantly since 2015 [9]. On 12 June 2014, Tesla announced its patent pledge, “that it will not initiate patent lawsuits against anyone who, in good faith, wants to use its technology” to encourage innovation in the EV industry [10]. Tesla’s pledge may have influenced other parties to re-evaluate their patent application filing strategies, thereby contributing to the plateau in EV patent application filings. That said, Intellectual Ventures has recently initiated a patent infringement case in Texas against Tesla based on 12 patents [11]. Tesla has responded to similar cases in the past by counterclaiming for infringement of its own patents. Consequently, we may be entering a more contentious phase in relation to EV patents.
EV infrastructure
A further hypothesis is that research and innovation in this field has maybe moved from EVs to EV infrastructure. However, as shown in Figure 5 below, the number of patent application filings for EV infrastructure globally over the last 25 years has also plateaued. In fact, the shape of the EV infrastructure chart shown in Figure 5 mirrors the shape of EV innovation as shown in Figure 3.
Figure 5: Global priority filings (2000-2022) - EV infrastructure
However, one aspect of EV infrastructure with increasing innovation is wireless charging. To date, wireless charging has largely been limited to smaller electronic devices due to inefficiency compared with wired charging, but user convenience and developments in technology mean that companies, such as Tesla, are investing in this concept.
Figure 6: Global priority filings (2000-2022) - wireless charging
Tesla historically favoured an automated robot arm to connect a charger to the electric vehicle but, earlier this year, Tesla chief designer, Franz von Holzhausen, confirmed that Tesla is working on inductive charging technology [12]. Tesla patent applications WO2024182409, WO2024182372, WO2024182405 and WO2024182422 were all published in September 2024 and relate to aspects of wireless charging. With any technology, ease of use can play a major factor in commercial success and so innovation in this area would likely be welcomed by consumers. Following on from this concept, Sweden has recently announced its intention to build the world’s first permanent electrified road to enable EVs to charge whilst driving, alleviating the need for EVs to stop to charge mid-journey [13]. Whilst various pilot projects have occurred in the past, this is the first permanent electrified road with plans to build it between Hallsberg and Oerbro by the end of 2025.
Figure 7: Global priority filings (2000-2022) - electric roads
The numbers of filings in this area are relatively low compared with dedicated wireless charging points, but there has been an increase in activity in recent years with Figure 8 showing that over half of the filings in this area are in Europe.
Figure 8: Priority filings (2000-2022) - electric roads - by country
As discussed in the Hydrogen section of this report, there is a notable increase in hydrogen storage innovations for motor vehicles since 2020. There is a conflict developing between the competing EV and hydrogen technologies with a race to dominate the future of the vehicle industry. Indeed, David Cebon, the director of Centre for Sustainable Road Freight, submitted an open letter in advance of the Paris Olympics claiming that the use of Toyota’s hydrogen cars, buses and other vehicles is misaligned with net zero and claimed that green, hydrogen-powered vehicles require three times more electricity than battery electric vehicles for equivalent use. [14]
Autonomous vehicles
A popular development in the automotive industry is the move towards autonomous vehicles (i.e., self-driven or driverless vehicles). Autonomous vehicle sales have seen significant growth in recent years and are projected to increase [15]. Autonomous vehicles provide significant commercial opportunities to the automotive industry, for example, to improve the user experience of cars by reducing the cognitive burden on the driver/passenger as well as for drivers of goods vehicles. There is ongoing debate about whether autonomous vehicles represent a green solution to the automotive industry. Current autonomous vehicles require vast computing infrastructure powering onboard camera and driving algorithms. Therefore, this will probably require significant increases in hardware efficiency for autonomous vehicles to be a viable green solution in future [16]. The UN Climate Change Global Innovation Hub aims to expand global innovation to “solution-oriented approaches” as an alternative approach to improving vehicles themselves [17]. Mobility as a service (MaaS) – one of the solution-oriented approaches – is a service concept that integrates public transport with other mobility services, such as car sharing [18]. MaaS may be heavily impacted by developments in autonomous vehicles. For example, Uber has expressed interest in using driverless cars to help replace car ownership. [19]. Autonomous vehicle technology has seen an increase in global patent application filings since 2000 (see figure 9 below) including a surge in the mid-2010s.
Figure 9: Global priority filings (2000-2022) - autonomous vehicles
The automotive industry has the potential to play a major role in reducing global emissions. The reduction in ICE vehicle-related patent application filings show a move to greener transport and the opportunities associated with EVs and autonomous appear to be the future of the automotive industry. References:
[1] – Transportation emissions worldwide - statistics & facts | Statista
[2] - Transport and environment statistics: 2023 - GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)
[3] - UN Climate Change Conference Baku - November 2024 | UNFCCC
[4] - Outlook for emissions reductions – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA
[5] - Global EV Policy Explorer – Data Tools - IEA
[6] - Global car sales by key markets, 2005-2020 – Charts – Data & Statistics - IEA
[7] - Trends in electric cars – Global EV Outlook 2024 – Analysis - IEA
[9] - Global plug-in electric light vehicle sales | Statista
[10] - Additional Resources | Tesla
[11] - Intellectual Ventures sues Tesla over 12 patents in Western District of Texas – ip fray
[12] - Tesla confirms wireless inductive electric car home charger is coming | Electrek
[15] - Projected sales of autonomous vehicles worldwide | Statista
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